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Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories [electronic resource] /by Edward E. Leamer.

by Leamer, Edward E [author.]; SpringerLink (Online service).
Material type: materialTypeLabelBookPublisher: Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2009.Description: online resource.ISBN: 9783540463894.Subject(s): Economics | Economics -- Statistics | Econometrics | Endogenous growth (Economics) | Economics/Management Science | Econometrics | Statistics for Business/Economics/Mathematical Finance/Insurance | Economic GrowthDDC classification: 330.015195 Online resources: Click here to access online
Contents:
Introduction: We Are Pattern-Seeking, Story-Telling Animals -- Four Key Variables: Growth, Unemployment, Inflation and Interest Rates -- Gross Domestic Product -- The Components of GDP: C+I+G+X?M -- Employment -- Inflation and Interest Rates -- Extrapolative Forecasting -- A Recession Symptoms -- Unwanted Idleness: Recessions and Recoveries -- Recession Comparison Charts -- Who Struggles and Who Does Well in Recessions? -- B Recession Stories -- Idleness Stories -- Cycle Stories -- C Recession Early Warning Signs -- Clues: Temporal Ordering of Components of GDP -- More Clues: Episodic Forecasting with Components of Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators -- D Recession Causes -- The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Nonexperimental Data -- In Search of Recession Causes -- Expansions: With and Without Spurts -- The Life Cycle of US Expansions: Sputters and Spurts -- The Longer Run: Savings, Investment, Government Borrowing, Foreign Lending and Your Home -- Savings and Investment -- Government -- The External Deficit and the Value of the Dollar Hu's in Charge? -- The Ups and Downs of Real Estate Values: Can You Rely on Your Home To Pay For Your Retirement?.
In: Springer eBooksSummary: This book offers the wisdom and insight regarding the US economy from a well-known and distinguished econometrician who found himself first teaching macro economics to MBAs and then Directing the highly-regarded and widely-quoted UCLA/Anderson Forecast which provides quarterly forecasts for the US economy. Edward Leamer argues that "We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals." He provides in this book the patterns and stories that are the basis for his understanding of what determines the business cycle and what determines long-run economic growth.
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Introduction: We Are Pattern-Seeking, Story-Telling Animals -- Four Key Variables: Growth, Unemployment, Inflation and Interest Rates -- Gross Domestic Product -- The Components of GDP: C+I+G+X?M -- Employment -- Inflation and Interest Rates -- Extrapolative Forecasting -- A Recession Symptoms -- Unwanted Idleness: Recessions and Recoveries -- Recession Comparison Charts -- Who Struggles and Who Does Well in Recessions? -- B Recession Stories -- Idleness Stories -- Cycle Stories -- C Recession Early Warning Signs -- Clues: Temporal Ordering of Components of GDP -- More Clues: Episodic Forecasting with Components of Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators -- D Recession Causes -- The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Nonexperimental Data -- In Search of Recession Causes -- Expansions: With and Without Spurts -- The Life Cycle of US Expansions: Sputters and Spurts -- The Longer Run: Savings, Investment, Government Borrowing, Foreign Lending and Your Home -- Savings and Investment -- Government -- The External Deficit and the Value of the Dollar Hu's in Charge? -- The Ups and Downs of Real Estate Values: Can You Rely on Your Home To Pay For Your Retirement?.

This book offers the wisdom and insight regarding the US economy from a well-known and distinguished econometrician who found himself first teaching macro economics to MBAs and then Directing the highly-regarded and widely-quoted UCLA/Anderson Forecast which provides quarterly forecasts for the US economy. Edward Leamer argues that "We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals." He provides in this book the patterns and stories that are the basis for his understanding of what determines the business cycle and what determines long-run economic growth.

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